For almost 70 years the idea of the demographic transition has been central to our understanding of global population dynamics. After many decades of relevance, however, the utility of the demographic transition model for anticipating the future is rapidly diminishing. Fertility is now close to or below the replacement level for most of the world’s population; the United Nations estimates that in 2005-2010, leaving aside Sub-Saharan Africa (where fertility is mostly still high) the total fertility rate (TFR) in the developing world was 2.3 and falling. For comparison the TFR in more developed nations was 1.6. The majority of the world will soon have entered a phase of demographic development that can validly be termed “post-transitional”. Given this, what can we expect in the future in the low fertility regions of the world?
In answering this question, we welcome theoretical, methodological and substantive contributions, especially comparisons of developing and developed countries. Early career researchers, including PhD scholars, are particularly encouraged to submit abstracts.
How to submit your abstract: Please send a one-page abstract (including title, aims, data, methods and conclusions) to Chris Wilson firstname.lastname@example.org by 17th June, 2013. Successful authors will be notified by 24th June.
Registration: The seminar is free and open to all, but pre-registration is essential as space is limited and preference will be given to presenters. To attend without presenting, also contact Chris Wilson.
Funding: With the support of the Oxford Population Centre, Nuffield College and the ESRC, full or partial funding is available to cover travel and accommodation costs. Priority will be given to early career researchers and PhD scholars with innovative and high-quality abstracts.
Seminar speakers: Invited speakers include: Stuart Basten (Oxford), Tim Dyson (LSE), Ron Lesthaeghe (Belgium) and Tomáš Sobotka (Vienna) as well as the organisers. Contributed papers and posters will also be presented.
Organisers: Saseendran Pallikadavath (Portsmouth), Francesco Billari (Oxford), Chris Wilson (St Andrews) and I.S. Rajan (CDS, Trivandrum).